Modeling and Preventive Measures of Ebola: An Analysis of an Epidemic in Libya
Abstract
Ebola is a rare virus, which can cause severe acute hemorrhagic fever and high mortality for humans and non-human primates. In 2014, Ebola virus out breaking in West Africa triggered a grave disaster to the people of the world, finally, it has been inhibited successfully under the vaccine and effective drug. In this article, data from patients and deaths due to Ebola were collected, which were reported by WHO. These data were analyzed and researched the spread of Ebola by SEIR model. In this model, basic reproduction number obtained was 15, which was based on the number of dead and patients from June to September in Libya. And according to the sensitivity analysis for basic reproduction number, it was proved that improving vaccination rate and recovery rate of infectious are two effective ways to suppress the spread of the Ebola epidemic. This article gives a detailed and direct scientific theory basis for the control of Ebola virus in the end.
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Introduction
Ebola is a zoonotic fulminating infectious disease which caused by Ebola virus. And the specific symptoms of it are high fever, fatigue, nausea, headache, vomiting, diarrhea, extreme sleepiness and shock, 1 which result in a very high mortality rate for people and apes, chimpanzee, gorillas and other non-human primate animal. 2
Ebola virus is very rare, that also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever. 2 According to Waterman (1999), Ebola virus firstly appeared in Sultan and Zaire (who is known as the Democratic Republic of Congo today) in 1976. From then, it has aroused widespread concern and attention in the medical field and was named Ebola River in Zaire. 3 Because the first epidemic situation occurred in Ebola River of Congo of Africa, people call it Ebola from that later. 4 Ebola outbreaks every few years, however, the size of each epidemic is relatively small and confined to the Central African. 1
In 2014, Ebola epidemic outbreak in Guinea, West Africa, and it quickly spread to Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Gabon ,Sultan and many other African countries, which called the most serious case in the history of West Africa. 5 As a result of the fear and economic turmoil in some parts of the region, WHO characterized this epidemic as an international emergency public health event. 4
Organization of this article is as follows. In the next section, an epidemic model for Ebola is proposed to understand the infectious dynamics.
Conclusion
From this paper, we can improve the vaccination rate to inhibit Ebola completely. In developed region. And by improving the recovery rate of patients is also an important way to suppress the outbreak of the disease. In order to prevent the spread of the Ebola effectively, people should try to avoid staying at the place which has lots of people to reduce the transmission rate.